Buying a Maui Condo as a Vacation Rental: What the Numbers Actually Look Like in 2026

Buying a Maui Condo as a Vacation Rental: What the Numbers Actually Look Like in 2026

If you've been dreaming about owning a piece of Maui and having it pay for itself, you're not alone. Vacation rental condos are one of the most searched investment categories in Hawaii real estate — and for good reason. But a lot of buyers come in with rosy projections they found on Airbnb's calculator or a developer's marketing sheet. This post is about what the numbers actually look like on the ground in South Maui in 2026.

First: Not Every Maui Condo Can Be a Vacation Rental

This is the most important thing to understand before you fall in love with a listing. Maui has strict short-term rental (STR) zoning laws, and only condos in hotel, resort, or certain business-zoned complexes are legally permitted to operate as vacation rentals (30 days or less). Apartment-zoned condos — which make up a large portion of the Kīhei and Wailea market — are restricted to long-term rentals of 181 days or more.

Bill 9 — signed into law as Ordinance 5909 on December 15, 2025 — phases out STR use in apartment-zoned districts on a defined timeline: West Maui units must cease short-term rental operations by January 1, 2029, and all other apartment-zoned units island-wide by January 1, 2031. This includes the long-standing "Minatoya list" units that had operated as STRs under a decades-old legal exemption. Some affected owners may have a path forward through rezoning into new H-3 or H-4 hotel designations, but approval is not guaranteed. Hotel- and resort-zoned properties are unaffected and remain fully STR-eligible.

The takeaway: always verify zoning before analyzing any investment. In 2026, the stakes of getting this wrong are higher than ever.

What STR-Eligible Condos Look Like in South Maui

STR-permitted complexes in South Maui range from entry-level beachside buildings in Kīhei to ultra-luxury resorts in Wailea and Makena. Price points vary accordingly:

• Entry to mid-range Kīhei STR condos (studios to 1BD): $400,000–$750,000
• Mid-range Wailea condos (1BD–2BD): $900,000–$1,800,000
• Luxury Wailea and Makena (2BD–3BD+): $2,000,000–$5,000,000+

The STR zoning premium is real. You will pay more per square foot for an STR-eligible unit compared to a comparable apartment-zoned condo next door. That premium is the market pricing in the income potential — and with Ordinance 5909 now law, that premium is likely to widen as supply of legally operable STR units contracts over the next several years.

Gross Revenue: What Owners Are Actually Generating

Vacation rental income in Maui is highly variable depending on complex, unit size, view, furnishings, management quality, and seasonality. That said, here are realistic gross revenue ranges for South Maui STR condos based on current market activity:

• Studio / 1BD Kīhei STR condo: $40,000–$70,000 gross annually
• 1BD–2BD Wailea STR condo: $80,000–$140,000 gross annually
• 3BD+ Luxury Wailea / Makena: $150,000–$300,000+ gross annually

Peak seasons drive the bulk of revenue: December through April (winter/whale season) and June through August (summer). Shoulder months — May and September through November — tend to be softer but still generate bookings for well-positioned units.

The Expenses That Eat Into Your Returns

This is where a lot of projections fall apart. Hawaii has transaction and operating costs that don't exist on the mainland, and they add up fast.

Hawaii General Excise Tax (GET): 4.5% on all gross rental revenue (4% state + 0.5% Maui County surcharge). This is a gross receipts tax — it's assessed on every dollar of revenue before any expenses are deducted.

Hawaii State Transient Accommodations Tax (TAT): As of January 1, 2026, the state TAT is 11% — up from 10.25% due to the newly enacted "Green Fee," dedicated to environmental and climate conservation funding.

Maui County Transient Accommodations Tax (MCTAT): An additional 3% county surcharge collected directly by Maui County on top of the state TAT.

Combined, GET + TAT + MCTAT equals 18.5% of gross revenue remitted to the state and county before you pay a single operating expense. This is one of the most significant financial realities of owning a Maui vacation rental, and one that catches many out-of-state buyers off guard.

Property Management: Most vacation rental management companies on Maui charge 25–35% of gross revenue. Some full-service luxury managers run higher. If you're managing remotely, you'll need someone reliable on the ground.

HOA Fees: Maui condo HOAs vary widely. Entry-level Kīhei complexes might run $800–$1,200/month. Luxury Wailea resorts can run $2,500–$5,000+/month. Always request the current financials and confirm whether the HOA has adequate reserves — underfunded reserves mean special assessments down the road.

Property Tax: Investment and vacation rental condos are taxed at the hotel/resort rate in Maui County, which is significantly higher than the owner-occupant homeowner rate. Budget accordingly.

Insurance, utilities, furnishings, maintenance: Plan for $8,000–$15,000+ annually depending on unit size and condition.

A Simple Back-of-Napkin Example

Let's run a realistic scenario on a 1-bedroom STR condo in Kīhei purchased at $600,000 with 25% down ($150,000) and a $450,000 mortgage at approximately 7% interest.

That's a negative cash flow scenario — and it's honest. At current interest rates and purchase prices, most Maui vacation rental condos do not cash flow positively on day one with conventional financing. What they do offer is appreciation potential, personal use value, and a hard asset in one of the most supply-constrained vacation markets in the United States.

Cash flow improves significantly with a larger down payment, an all-cash purchase, or a unit with stronger revenue performance — oceanfront positioning, superior views, and a premium complex reputation all move the needle meaningfully.

What Buyers Should Actually Be Evaluating

Rather than asking "will this cash flow?", the better questions for a Maui STR investment are:

1. Is the property in a confirmed STR-eligible zone? Hotel and resort zoning is the gold standard. With Ordinance 5909 now law, apartment-zoned units — even those previously on the Minatoya list — carry real legal and timeline risk.
2. What is the complex's rental history and reputation on booking platforms? A well-reviewed complex with established booking momentum is worth more than raw square footage.
3. What is your true all-in cost of ownership vs. projected net revenue? Run the numbers with conservative occupancy (65–70%), not optimistic projections.
4. What is your personal use plan? Hawaii's tax rules around mixed personal/rental use have implications for deductibility — talk to a CPA familiar with Hawaii investment property before you close.
5. What is the 5–10 year appreciation thesis? Maui has very limited land for new development, restricted supply, and persistent global demand. With legally operable STR inventory now set to contract under Ordinance 5909, the long-term case for properly zoned STR assets is arguably stronger than it has ever been.

The Bottom Line

Buying a Maui vacation rental condo is not a get-rich-quick play at today's prices. It's a lifestyle asset with real income potential that works best when you buy the right property, in the right zoning, with realistic expectations and a long-term horizon. In 2026, knowing the difference between hotel-zoned and apartment-zoned is not just due diligence — it's the entire ballgame.

If you want to run the numbers on a specific property or complex you're considering — I do this regularly and I'm happy to walk you through it. 
Call: 808-481-9748
Email: benjamin@the808team.com
Website: https://benjamin.the808team.com

Benjamin Finnerty is a REALTOR® Salesperson with The 808 Team at Keller Williams Realty Maui, specializing in South Maui luxury condominiums and STR-zoned investment properties. RS-83812.