Published December 5, 2025

Will Bill 9 Lower Maui Home Prices? December 2025 Market Update

Written by Todd Hudson

Silhouette of a Maui home at sunset with a declining-then-rising market graph overlay and the text “Bill 9 Impact: 2026 Update,” representing how Bill 9 may affect Maui real estate prices.

Will Bill 9 Lower Home Prices? What Maui Buyers Need to Know Now

With Bill 9 passing its first reading and moving toward full adoption, one question is dominating the Maui real estate world:

“Will Bill 9 lower home prices?”

Buyers, sellers, investors — everyone wants to know where the market is heading. And while nobody can predict the future with absolute certainty, we can break down the market forces at play and outline the scenarios most likely to unfold on Maui in 2026.

Below is a clear, factual breakdown to help you understand what’s possible, what’s probable, and where the biggest opportunities may be.

What Bill 9 Actually Does (Quick Summary)

Bill 9 is the county’s proposal to phase out thousands of short-term rentals in the apartment-zoned districts, with the stated goal of converting them into long-term housing.

Key points from the first reading:

STRs in the hotel zones remain unaffected
Affected properties include large amounts of Kihei and West Maui inventory
Current timeline discussions range from 2026–2031 (subject to council amendments)
TIG/Exhibit 2 lists are still being reviewed, and the Council has stated they may revisit which complexes stay on or off the protected list
Final language is not fully set, and significant amendments are expected during second and third readings

Translation:
The bill is moving forward — but the details are still evolving.

So… Will Prices Drop Because of Bill 9?

Short answer: It depends on the segment.
Not every part of Maui will feel the impact the same way.

Below is the breakdown.

1. Apartment-Zoned Condos With STR Usage — POSSIBLE PRICE PRESSURE

These are the properties most affected by Bill 9.

Why prices might soften here:

Buyer Pool Shrinks

Investors who relied on STR income may exit or avoid these properties.

Some Sellers May Rush

Owners uncomfortable with uncertainty might list quickly, especially if a sunset date is set.

Financing May Shift

Some lenders may tighten loan products until the law becomes clearer.

But here’s the nuance:
If Bill 9 faces lawsuits or delays — which is very possible — forced selling pressure may not materialize quickly.

Expected Outcome: Mild softening, not a crash.

2. Residential Single-Family Homes — UNLIKELY TO DROP

Single-family home demand remains extremely high, and Bill 9 does not directly affect most of this inventory.

Why prices likely stay steady or increase:

Inventory is still historically low
Construction costs remain high
Migration to Maui continues
Local and mainland buyers both target this segment
Homeowners are locked into low interest rates and not rushing to sell
West Maui fire rebuilds are still applying pressure to demand

Expected Outcome: Steady to appreciating prices. No major declines.

3. Hotel-Zoned STR-Legal Condos — MAY INCREASE IN VALUE

This is the segment with the most upside potential.

Why?

If apartment-zoned STRs are phased out, buyers will flock to legal STR complexes
Limited supply + stable rental legality = price support
Investors shift capital into predictable zones

We’re already seeing early signs of increased inquiry traffic since the Bill 9 first reading.

Expected Outcome: Prices hold strong or rise due to demand rerouting.

4. Long-Term Rental & Workforce Housing Segments — LIKELY INCREASE IN DEMAND

If STRs are phased out, thousands of units may slowly move into the long-term rental pool.

But Maui has already seen that:

Some STR owners will not convert to long-term tenants
Some will prefer to sell or keep vacant
Most complexes were not designed for long-term living (no storage, small units, insufficient parking)

So while demand for long-term rentals should rise, supply may not move enough to reduce rents dramatically.

Expected Outcome:
Rents stay high. Long-term investor demand stays high.

The Big Question: Could Maui See a Price Crash?

Probably unlikely.
Here’s why:

Maui remains one of the most supply-constrained markets in the U.S.
Geography limits new development
Zoning restrictions limit density
New construction is slow and expensive
High-income relocation to Maui is not slowing
Insurance, taxes, and carrying costs keep supply low

A meaningful price drop would require a flood of listings AND a collapse in demand — and Bill 9 alone cannot create that scenario across the entire island.

What Buyers Should Do Right Now

1. Watch the TIG List Closely

Some complexes may be added or removed before final approval.

2. Get Pre-Approved Early

Volatility often creates opportunity — and competitive buyers get the deals.

3. Target Hotel-Zoned STR Inventory

This is where the strongest appreciation potential likely moves.

4. Watch for “Motivated Seller” Signals

Owners in affected complexes may list early to beat deadlines.

5. Don’t Wait for a Market Crash

Signs point to shifts, not collapses.
The best strategy is to buy strategically during uncertainty.

My December 2025 Prediction (Data + Market Behavior)

This is the scenario I forecast as of today:

Apartment-zoned STR inventory: –3% to –10% downward price pressure
Hotel-zoned STR inventory: +3% to +12% appreciation in 2026
Residential homes: 0% to +4% annual appreciation
Luxury market (Wailea, Makena, Ka’anapali): Stays resilient due to cash-heavy buyers

Again — these are projections, not guarantees, but they reflect current supply-demand patterns on Maui.

Final Thoughts: Uncertainty Creates Opportunity

For Maui buyers, this is a rare moment.

The market is shifting. Sellers are watching closely. Investors are repositioning. The County is still adjusting the final language of Bill 9, and the TIG list may still change.

Those who stay informed — and move strategically — will benefit.